We are involved in projects funded by BMBF, DFG, AWI's strategy fund and other funding sources. Cooperations and collaborations have led to a strong network links in the national and international paleoclimate communities.
The main objective of DustIron is an improved characterization of the modern and past dust cycle and its link to SO iron fertilisation and atmospheric CO2 through a closely coupled novel data – model approach.
Climate models as tools to project future climate are subject to uncertainty and bias but are the only quantitative tools for studying coming climate conditions. We must improve climate projections by identifying and removing model weaknesses – a non-trivial task in lack of model- independent future verification data. In our effort to improve the third generation of the AWI Earth System Model (AWI-ESM3) we bypass this hurdle by refining past, present, and future climate simulations with reconstructions of past climate and observations. The project will provide reference climate states for past and future warm climates that are based on the improved model. Our work supports AWI’s contribution to CMIP/PMIP flagship initiatives, will improve AWI-ESM3 for the use in warm climates, and identify past climate characteristics that may serve as analogues to the future.
To understand the processes responsible for different types of compound extremes (e.g., drought/heatwaves in the mid-latitudes, rain on snow events in the polar regions and ocean heatwaves and their ecological consequences) over a wide range of climate backgrounds: paleo - present-day - future.
The MOSAiC drift experiment offered the unique possibility to tackle the main hydrological processes occurring in the Central Arctic covering a complete seasonal cycle including the understudied Arctic winter. In the CiASOM project, stable water isotopes are exploited as key parameters for an improved understanding of the present-day Arctic water cycle.
The RESCUE project will improve knowledge and understanding of the “Climate and Earth System responses to climate neutrality and net negative emissions” by pursuing two overall objectives:
Quantify the climate and Earth system responses to pathways achieving climate neutrality by Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) deployment with and without temperature overshoot, and
Assess the potential role of CDR in reducing net greenhouse gas emissions and its potential environmental risks and co-benefits.
To achieve the first objective, RESCUE will design a suite of new global temperature stabilization scenarios at several target values. These new pathways to climate neutrality will consider multiple aspects of the climate system response, such as sea-level rise, carbon cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. On focus is the reversibility of induced changes by comparing scenarios with and without temporary temperature overshoots.
The Alfred-Wegener-Insitute on Polar and Marine Research, in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute, will perform ice sheet simulations to assess the sea-level consequence of various scenarios. In addition, we will evaluate if overshoot scenarios may lead to irreversible changes in the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, driving a sustained sea-level rise.
The aim of this BMBF funded initiative which involves several research institutions and other partners is to improve our understanding of the climate system dynamic and the climate variability during the last glacial cycle. Further information
We examine the climate relationship between the Arctic and the mid- latitudes, focusing on the abrupt changes and extremes in the Eurasian climate system in response to the temporal fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice. As evidenced by both instrumental and satellite observations, the accelerated retreat in the Arctic sea ice and the higher frequencies of climate extremes in mid-latitudes are two remarkable climatic phenomena that can be attributed to the ongoing global warming and pose potential climatic threats to Europe and East Asia. So far, the processes of Arctic sea ice and their linkage to mid-latitudes have not yet been clarified. In this project, we will systematically create a database for the Arctic and Eurasian regions in order to characterize temporal and spatial characteristics of abrupt climate changes and extremes in the Holocene. This is combined with climate modeling using the coupled Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), which is equipped with a water isotopes module. In addition, we will use our model to create climate projections for the next 1000 years, which provides insight into the potential upcoming climate for Germany and China. We are carrying out this project in close scientific cooperation with our Chinese partner, the China University of Geoscience, on the basis of long-term cooperation. We will apply the expanded knowledge of the past to provide a benchmark of the future trend of abrupt changes and extremes in Eurasia.
We will reconstruct the distribution of radiocarbon at the sea surface with unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution and simulate it using a novel multi-scale climate radiocarbon model. This will allow marine data to be corrected and hypotheses about abrupt climate changes during the last ice age to be tested.
The fundamental idea behind paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) is to constrain a climate model trajectory using proxy data and an observation operator (e.g., a forward model) and consequently optimally estimate past climate. It is also possible to quantitatively estimate uncertainties of proxies and simulations. Although the PDA and regular data assimilation root in the same statistical theory, the PDA has some specific characteristics.
The joint project launched on 01.10.2022 under the title "agile network control to increase the resilience of the critical infrastructure water supply" (aKtIv) is intended to contribute to making the water supply more crisis-proof. The overarching goal of aKtIv is to prevent the failure of drinking water supplies due to insufficient available water, e.g. due to flooded water systems or dry periods.
This project will tackle the following questions: Which processes determine extremes, and how will such processes change? How well are models representing extreme events, and what are causes of deficits? How sensitive is the ocean to extreme Greenland melt events, and how would specific extremes (e.g. droughts, heatwaves, cold spells) will unfold with an AMOC changed by global warming?
One of REKLIM’s long-term goals is to develop optimized Earth system models at a regional scale, in which interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, biosphere, land masses and soils are taken into account and viewed in relation to human activities. These Earth system models, together with suitable observation and data analysis techniques, will allow us to assess and project regional climate change in the past, present and future.
Ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica show a profound connection between the climate history on the two hemispheres. We want to extend the mathematical model that has been used so far to describe this connection ("bipolar seesaw") and supplement it with additional climate parameters to deepen the understanding about paleoclimate variability on a global scale. Further, we want to use methods of extreme value theory to analyse recently observed and predicted climate changes and assess the magnitude and impacts of future extremal climate events. This will also include an analysis of spatio-temporal dependencies between extremal events.
PAGES supports scientific approaches to understand past environmental conditions with the aim of compiling projections for the future. The PAGES community brings together experts for paleo-climate and paleo-environment, and their supporters.
Climate Models are used to create projections of future climate that is very likely quite different from the climate state for which the models have been developed and calibrated. In PMIP the models are validated for different climate states in that they are exposed to boundary conditions and forcings representing past climates. The results are evaluated against each other and against model-independent climate information from geologic archives. Aim is quantification of uncertainties in paleoclimate covering the targets set out in the "PMIP triangle": climate reconstructions, modelling methodology, models and their parameters. To this end a large consortium of paleoclimate modelling groups creates an ensemble of paleoclimate simulations that are evaluated in a coordinated manner against each other and against the geologic archive. Targets are in particular the mid-Holocene, the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum, and various other time periods like the Pliocene and the Miocene that are covered by affiliated intercomparison projects like PlioMIP and MioMIP.
The Pliocene is in many respects an analogue to potential future warm climate states. Our models are tested against each other, and against proxy data, how reliable they are in producing a warm Pliocene climate. Aim is quantification of uncertainties in paleoclimate covering the targets set out in the "PMIP triangle": climate reconstructions, modelling methodology, models and their parameters. To this end a large consortium of paleoclimate modelling groups creates an ensemble of Pliocene climate simulations that are evaluated in a coordinated manner against each other and against the geologic archive.
Cooperation Partner: University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment; various other modelling centers
Due to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, we have already passed typical Pliocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Therefore, an “intermediate” deep-time climate analog, where boundary conditions are close to modern but extreme climate changes occurred, is of great interest. In this respect the Miocene and especially the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO, ∼16.9–14.7 Ma) have been identified as valuable targets (Steinthorsdottir et al., 2021; Burls et al. 2022).
This modelling inter-comparisson project focuses on hothouse climate conditions without any large scale continental ice sheets with atmospheric CO2 concentrations including levels above 1000 ppmv. Other fundamental changes to include contain e.g. vegetation and continental configuration, thereby providing a particularly challenging test for state-of-the art models to operate out of their 'comfort' zone.
Tide-induced mixing is a necessity in energy balance of the earth system, which, however, is not well studied in paleoclimate. To deepen the understanding of vertical mixing in paleo-ocean as well as its role in climate, a numerical earth system model will be developed to simulate glacial-interglacial changes as well as centennial-tomillennial variations such as Heinrich events, which will contribute to a deeper knowledge of past, present and future climate changes.
The scientific question to be addressed is how feedback mechanisms in the Arctic affect the phase shift of Arctic surface temperature. The function of each feedback will be quantified for understanding the physical processes of Arctic amplification underlying the climate change.
This project examines the Asian monsoon evolution during the Holocene period with the cutting-edge AWI-CM3 climate model. Particularly, it will explore why the East Asian monsoon showed a lagged response to the orbital forcings, unlike other regional monsoons.
This project is aim to investigate the key processes contribute to the ice sheet growth in the North Hemisphere during the last glacial incpetion period through climate modeling.
REKLIM together with the WWF Germany and the University of Hamburg developed an adult education course on climate change, which will include region-specific issues, and offer it at community colleges throughout Germany. Funded by the National Climate Initiative of the Federal Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection klimafit will educate multipliers in communities to foster and support climate protection measures from grass route. By 2024 we aim to establish education programs at 170 community colleges over whole Germany.
meereisportal.de / seaiceportal.de is an information and data portal on the topic of sea ice for both polar regions. The aim of the portal is to provide a daily updated presentation of the sea ice situation in both polar regions in the form of prepared, printable graphics and maps as well as their raw data, the preparation of the basics and knowledge on the topic of sea ice as well as the current expert assessment of the sea ice situation in both hemispheres extensively for different target groups of society.
Based on global climate data, this project in collaboration with the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) aims to test and optimize the predictability of Elbe river streamflow at monthly and seasonal time scale and, if possible, to extend the forecast horizon up to 6 months ahead.
Testing/development/implementation of a statistical forecasting scheme for Rhine and Moselle and a password-based website, which could potentially be applied operationally to fulfill the request of different stakeholders (e.g. shipping companies, water managers)
With the WWF Youth Campaign, we want to create awareness and understanding for the work and results of climate research and contribute to initiating the necessary social-ecological transformation in close exchange with politics and industry.
The campaign is divided into the subject areas climate research and climate policy. With the start of the campaign, the focus will be on climate research: here it is a matter of comprehensive knowledge transfer with the support of experts from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research as well as the pilot project to accompany the scientific research team to Finland.
Large-scale ocean circulation is influenced by a variety of processes, for instance ventilation of the overturning circulation and interconnections between the subpolar and subtropical gyres. We aim to use both model simulations as well as paleoclimate proxies to examine this influence and the corresponding trigger mechanisms, which, occur on time scales varying from 10 to 1000 years.
This project aims to examine the influence of iron dust on the global climate, and the corresponding feedbacks between the high and mid latitudes, which occur on timescales ranging from one year to hundreds of thousands of years. A key aim is to examine feasibility of geoengineering projects in order to adapt to possible future climate change due to anthropogenic influence.
The BMBF funded projects "PLOT - Paleolimnological Transect" aims at the reconstruction of climate and vegetation changes alongside a 6000km long transect from the Ladoga lake in West Russia to the El'gygytgyun lake in East Siberia. The reconstruction is based on a multi-disciplinary geoscientific analysis of sediment cores from five different lakes, which will be linked to results from respective paleoclimate simulations.
Main objective of the project Iso-Arc, which is funded by the AWI strategy fund, is the first in-depth determination and description of the water cycle east of the Arctic, its isotopic composition (H218O, HD16O)and its mapping in different climate archives. Measurements of water vapour will be conducted in combination with ocean and precipitation data as well as with climate simulations with isotope diagnosis.
In this project we aim at investigating past climate variability by means of climate modelling. We focus in particular on the study of feedback mechanisms that include ocean circulation and the effects of sea ice and ice sheets.
The last deglaciation (21~8ka BP) is characterized by abrupt climate changes, such as Bolling-Allerod warming, Young Dryas cooling, of which underlying dynamics remain elusive. In this project funded by the Helmholtz Association, we will employ an isotope-enabled climate model with ice sheet dynamics to simulate the climate evolution in the last 21,000 years. This approach enables us 1) make a direct data-model comparison for our understanding of recorded climate change and 2) evaluate feedbacks among different components of climate system that shape the last deglaciation.
Over the last few decades the contribution of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica to sea level rise has grown. It is however not clear to what extent the recent reduction in land ice mass is related to the globally warming climate. This DFG funded project aims to assess natural variability and long-term trends in the ice sheets’ mass balance and to relate these to the changes during the industrial period. For this purpose we turn our attention to the last 6000 years, from Mid Holocene to present, as this period is characterized by similar to present ice sheet geometries as well as only moderate and gradual climate change before the onset of rising greenhouse gas concentration. Combining ice sheet simulations and climate simulations, we focus on those interactions between the climate system and the ice sheets, which are usually unresolved in millennial scale simulations.
This project aims at enabling forcasting of seasonal variations in water levels and currents in Germany’s rivers based upon stable teleconnections, global climate indexes, and surface temperatures.
