Earth System Complexity

The Earth System Complexity group at AWI is focused on understanding interactions between large-scale components of the Earth, like the ice sheets and ocean circulation, boreal forest and permafrost. We strive to increase our understanding of the relevant processes driving dynamics within these systems on long timescales, using numerical models and paleo data analysis.

See more details on the group's Github page: https://awi-esc.github.io/

Some publications

Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., Rypdal, M. and Boers, N.: Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet, Nature, 622, 528–536, doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9, 2023.

Swierczek‐Jereczek, J., Robinson, A., Blasco, J., Alvarez‐Solas, J. and Montoya, M.: Time‐scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non‐monotonous R‐tipping, Scientific Reports, 13, 2104, doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1, 2023.

Moreno-Parada, D., Alvarez-Solas, J., Blasco, J., Montoya, M., and Robinson, A.: Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum, The Cryosphere, 17, 2139–2156, doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, 2023.

Some tools we use

Yelmo ice sheet model: a higher-order continental-scale ice sheet model

Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M., Goelzer, H., Greve, R., and Ritz, C.: Description and validation of the ice-sheet model Yelmo (version 1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2805–2823, doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2805-2020, 2020.

CLIMBER-X climate model: a fast Earth system model (fESM) capable of long timescale simulations

Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Robinson, A., and Edwards, N. R.: The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022.

FastIsostasy: a regional glacial isostatatic adjustment model

Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Latychev, K., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Mitrovica, J.: FastIsostasy v1.0 – An accelerated regional GIA model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth, EGUsphere \[preprint], doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2869, 2023.

Related projects

Prediction of Climate Surprises on Longer Time Scales (FORCLIMA)

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are prime examples of tipping elements in the Earth system that have the potential to respond non-linearly to small changes in forcing. Tipping elements can therefore lead to climate surprises—low-probability, high-impact events that may be triggered sooner than expected. FORCLIMA will generate probabilistic estimates of climate surprises for the medium-term future (centuries to millennia) with much greater reliability than is currently possible and will provide insights into the interactions between key tipping elements in the climate system. This project will advance the state of the art in coupled climate-ice sheet modeling and lead to a better understanding of the long-term impacts of climate change on the Earth system.

The FORCLIMA project is supported by a European Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant.

Climate Tipping Points: Quantifying the Earth System’s Tipping Potential Using Observations and Models and Assessing Associated Climatic, Ecological, and Socio-Economic Impacts (ClimTIP)

The likelihood of large-scale Earth system tipping events under continued anthropogenic influence remains uncertain. Given the potential irreversibility of such events and the potentially catastrophic global consequences for the climate, ecosystems, and society, the precautionary principle demands a thorough investigation of the underlying mechanisms, compound or cascading effects, and associated risks. ClimTip will significantly advance the understanding of processes governing potential tipping elements (TEs) within the Earth system. It will provide the methodological framework for characterizing and constraining potential tipping elements using paleoclimate, observational, and model data; for identifying unknown tipping potentials based on observations and models; and for quantifying resilience and its changes in climate and ecosystems, including early warning of impending transitions.

The ClimTip project is supported by a Horizon Europe consortium grant from the European Commission and is coordinated by the Technical University of Munich.

We are always interested in establishing new collaborations. Please contact us!