Synoptic events during MOSAiC and their Forecast Reliability in the Troposphere-Stratosphere System


SynopSys exploits routine meteorological weather observations from the MOSAiC expedition, remote sensing data products, and meteorological forecast data to detect and characterize synoptic events in the Arctic and evaluate their influence on mid-latitudes. We implement a diagnostic framework that will advance our knowledge on dynamical processes in the coupled troposphere-stratosphere system. A particular focus lies in the evaluation of enhanced predictive capability through a synergistic and unique set of measurements in the Arctic and a better representation of physical processes in weather forecast models. As well documented, the Arctic region is undergoing rapid change in a warming climate. This has many implications for mid-latitude climate and consequently on the future social, economic, and political development in both regions. Improving weather forecast taking into account the coupling of the Artic and mid-latitudes is thus essential.


SynopSys is a collaborative project involving Alfred Wegener Institute, University of Bremen and Deutscher Wetterdienst. The collaboration enables a unique integration of specific expertise in Arctic research, data analysis, remote sensing and numerical weather prediction.


SynopSys is structured in four work packages. Each of them serves as a main objective of the project.


SynopSys members meet regularly to coordinate their progress and ideas. Here we list the past and future meetings of the whole consortium.

Next Meeting is planned for July/August, when all positions will be filled.


  • Overland, J. E., Ballinger, T. J., Cohen, J., Francis, J. A., Hanna, E., Jaiser, R., ... & Zhang, X. (2021). How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d.
  • Köhler, R., Handorf, D., Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., Zängl, G., Majewski, D., & Rex, M. (2021). Improved Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere by Adjusting Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations in Seasonal Experiments With ICON‐NWP. Earth and Space Science, 8(3), e2021EA001676, doi:10.1029/2021EA001676
  • Feng, W., Dhomse S. S., Arosio, C., Weber, M., Burrows, J. P., Santee, M. L. and Chipperfield, M. P.: Arctic ozone depletion in 2019/20: Roles of chemistry, dynamics and the Montreal Protocol, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091911, doi:10.1029/2020GL091911, 2021.
  • Weber, M., Arosio, C., Feng, W., Dhomse, S., Chipperfield, M. P., Meier, A., Burrows, J. P., Eichmann, K.-U., Richter, A. and Rozanov, A.: The unusual stratospheric Arctic winter 2019/20: Chemical ozone loss from satellite observations and TOMCAT chemical transport model, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2020JD034386, doi:10.1029/2020JD034386, 2021.
  • Rinke, A., Cassano, J. J., Cassano, E. N., Jaiser, R., & Handorf, D. (2021). Meteorological conditions during the MOSAiC expedition: Normal or anomalous?. Elem Sci Anth, 9(1), 00023, doi:10.1525/elementa.2021.00023
  • Shupe, MD, Rex, M, Blomquist, B, Persson, POG, Schmale, J, Uttal, T, Althausen, D, Angot, H, Archer, S, Bariteau, L, Beck, I, Bilberry, J, Bucci, S, Buck, C, Boyer, M, Brasseur, Z, Brooks, IM, Calmer, R, Cassano, J, Castro, V, Chu, D, Costa, D, Cox, CJ, Creamean, J, Crewell, S, Dahlke, S, Damm, E, de Boer, G, Deckelmann, H, Dethloff, K, Dütsch, M, Ebell, K, Ehrlich, A, Ellis, J, Engelmann, R, Fong, AA, Frey, MM, Gallagher, MR, Ganzeveld, L, Gradinger, R, Graeser, J, Greenamyer, V, Griesche, H, Griffiths, S, Hamilton, J, Heinemann, G, Helmig, D, Herber, A, Heuzé, C, Hofer, J, Houchens, T, Howard, D, Inoue, J, Jacobi, H-W, Jaiser, R, Jokinen, T, Jourdan, O, Jozef, G, King, W, Kirchgaessner, A, Klingebiel, M, Krassovski, M, Krumpen, T, Lampert, A, Landing, W, Laurila, T, Lawrence, D, Lonardi, M, Loose, B, Lüpkes, C, Maahn, M, Macke, A, Maslowski, W, Marsay, C, Maturilli, M, Mech, M, Morris, S, Moser, M, Nicolaus, M, Ortega, P, Osborn, J, Pätzold, F, Perovich, DK, Petäjä, T, Pilz, C, Pirazzini, R, Posman, K, Powers, H, Pratt, KA, Preußer, A, Quéléver, L, Radenz, M, Rabe, B, Rinke, A, Sachs, T, Schulz, A, Siebert, H, Silva, T, Solomon, A, Sommerfeld, A, Spreen, G, Stephens, M, Stohl, A, Svensson, G, Uin, J, Viegas, J, Voigt, C, von der Gathen, P, Wehner, B, Welker, JM, Wendisch, M, Werner, M, Xie, ZQ, Yue, F. (2022) Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Atmosphere. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 10(1), doi: 10.1525/elementa.2021.00060.

  • Weber, M., Arosio, C., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Fioletov, V., Frith, S. M., Wild, J. D., Tourpali, K., Burrows, J. P., and Loyola, D.: Global total ozone recovery trends derived from five merged ozone datasets (2021). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], doi:10.5194/acp-2021-1058, in review.


  • Jaiser, R. et al. @ AGU Fall Meeting 2020, 14 December 2020, online: Project SynopSys: Exploiting Synoptic Events during MOSAiC to enable improved Forecast Reliability in the coupled Troposphere-Stratosphere System.
  • Jaiser, R., Handorf, D., Semmler, T., Kreyling, D., Wohltmann, I., Akperov, M., Timazhev, A. and Mokhov, I. I. (2021), Linkages between Arctic and mid-Latitude weather and climate: unraveling the impact of changing sea ice and sea surface temperatures, Polar-amplification-MIP (PAMIP) Virtual workshop, online, 30 March 2021 - 1 April 2021.
  • Jaiser, R., Akperov, M., Timazhev, A., Romanowsky, E., Handorf, D. and Mokhov, I. (2021), Linkages between Arctic and Mid-Latitude Weather and Climate: Unraveling the Impact of Changing Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 5-9 September 2021.
  • Arosio, C., Rozanov, A., Weber, M., Gorshelev, V., Kramarova, N, Roth, C., Burrows, J. P., Error budget assessment for OMPS-LP limb ozone retrieval, Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, online, 3-8 October 2021.
  • Weber M., et al. (2021),Global total ozone recovery trends derived from five merged ozone datasets, Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, online, 3-8 October 2021.
  • Rinke, A., et al. (2021), Case study of a moisture intrusion over the Arctic: Resolution dependence of its representation in ICON, Polar CORDEX meeting, online, 12-14 October 2021.
  • Jaiser, R. et al. (2022), SynopSys - Synoptic events during MOSAiC and their Forecast Reliability in the Troposphere-Stratosphere System, MOSAiC conference, Potsdam, Germany, 25-29 April 2022
  • Jaiser, R. et al. (2022), SynopSys - Synoptic Events During MOSAiC and their Forecast Reliability in the Troposphere-Stratosphere System, YOPP final summit, Montreal, Canada, 29 August – 1 September 2022
  • Paschalidi, Z. et al. (2022), Evaluation and Improvement of Arctic Forecast: Data Assimilation of MOSAiC Expedition Data for SynopSys Project EMS conference, EMS annual meeting 2022, Bonn, Germany, 4-9 September 2022


SynopSys is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as a grant to advance the scientific exploitation of the MOSAiC expedition under the umbrella of “Mare:N − Coastal, Marine and Polar Research for Sustainability Research” in the framework “Research for Sustainability” (FONA3). The funding period started in November 2020 and ends in October 2024.


Dr. Ralf Jaiser
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Telegrafenberg A45
14473 Potsdam, Germany
+49 331 58174-5205