Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with a Changing Arctic climate
APPLICATE is an €8 million project financed by the EU HORIZON 2020 Research and Innovation programme that involves 16 partners from nine countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) and will be carried out over a period of four years. The multinational and multidisciplinary consortium will work to enhance weather and climate prediction capabilities not only in the Arctic, but also in Europe, Asia, and North America. A focus on the Arctic is important for improved predictions of weather and climate in the mid-latitudes because the changes taking place in the Arctic due to climate change — the retreat of sea ice, warming seas and a warming atmosphere — have the potential to influence weather and climate in the mid-latitudes.
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"Processes and impacts of climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic" aims to educate PhD students in an interdisciplinary environment that combines the strength in marine geosciences and environmental physics in Bremen with complementary skills and expertise in sea-ice and ice-sheet modelling in a consortium of eight Canadian partner universities. The scientific team with the PhD students in its centre aims to advance the understanding of the variability of the Arctic Ocean and the cryosphere on time scales of decades to millennia and to use these results to robustly assess the impact of projected future climate changes on the Arctic.
Advanced Earth System Modelling Capacity: A contribution to solving Grand Challenges by developing and applying innovative Earth System Modelling capacity
ESM is a €10 million project started in April 2017 funded by the Helmholtz Association over a period of three years. The project comprises eight Helmholtz Research Centres and aims to improve the representation of the components of the Earth system and their coupling, as well as to perform a series of selected numerical experiments to address Grand Challenges (Frontier Simulations). A long-term strategy for the development of an Earth System Modelling capacity is also an objective of the project.
Follow ESM on Twitter @project_esm.
ESM-TOOLS is a software product developed and maintained at AWI Bremerhaven as part of the Helmholtz project ESM with the aim to unify model infrastructure, giving a common framework for downloading, compiling, running and organizing coupled or standalone models. ESM-TOOLS is composed of three tools: (1) esm-master: Makefile-based tool to download, configure and compile the models (2) esm-environment: Machine-dependant settings for compiling and running of models, all collected in one place. (3) esm-runscripts: collection of functions enabling to use short and concise runscripts, practically identical independent of machine or even model. The underlying functions organize the whole experiment, including copying of data, modifying of namelists, sanity checks, iterative coupling, and much more.
Follow ESM-TOOLS on Twitter @ToolsEsm.
FRontiers in Arctic marine Monitoring
Our ability to understand the complex interactions of biological, chemical, physical, and geological processes in the ocean and on land is still limited by the lack of integrative and interdisciplinary observation infrastructures. The main purpose of the open-ocean infrastructure FRAM is permanent presence at sea, from surface to depth, for the provision of near real-time data on Earth system dynamics, climate variability and ecosystem change. The Climate Dynamics section supports the FRAM infrastructure program with high-resolution ocean and sea-ice simulations.
Vibe Schourup-Kristensen | Claudia Wekerle
In this project, two main hypotheses will be tested: (1) Machine learning will lead to much better parametrizations in climate models and (2) machine learning methods can help to overcome computational bottlenecks in high-resolution model runs on extreme-scale highperformance computers. Firstly, it is planned to develop new parameterizations for representing ocean eddies in the Finite Volume Sea Ice-Ocean Model (FESOM2.0), which has been developed at AWI. Secondly, it is planned to go one step further by using ML methods for replacing certain parts of Earth system models that present computational bottlenecks for high-resolution configurations. Furthermore, it is planned to examine how satellite observations can be integrated in the ML model. Here, we aim in particular at obtaining very high-resolution models, where the underlying mathematical model leads to an ill-posed inverse problem. This requires adapting regularized deep learning approaches based on generative adversarial network architectures. Improve the realism of climate models and hence their ability to project future climate change.
PRIMAVERA is a “Horizon 2020” project funded by the European Commission. The project is a collaboration between 19 European partners, led by the Met Office and the Reading University. The main objectives of the project are to develop a new generation of advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution global climate models, and perform simulations and predictions of regional climate with unprecedented fidelity.
The Weddell Sea in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean is one of the most dynamic air/ice/ocean interaction areas and the Larsen Ice Shelf adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula has undergone dramatic changes in recent decades which need to be understood. Additionally, the Antarctic continental shelves and the exchange of shelf water with the open ocean play a key role for global ocean circulation. The aim of REDOCCA is to study the impact of changes in the atmospheric conditions on the ocean circulation in the Weddell Sea for the mid and the end of the 21st century. Several simulations of AWI-CM, produced for CMIP6, regional high-resolution simulations of COSMO-CLM (run by colleagues at the University of Trier), and FESOM stand-alone simulations will be analysed with a focus on polynya representation and the formation of shelf water. Climate developments of the last 160 years as well as the 21st century are investigated. The focus will be on the representation of local wind systems, shelf water production, sea ice production and melt, and ice shelf basal melt rates adjacent to the Weddell Sea, especially the Larsen Ice Shelf.
Ocean mass varibility on time scales of months to decades is still insufficiently understood. On these time scales, large-scale bottom pressure anomalies are associated both with wind induced variability as well as baroclinic processes, i.e. related to vertical shear of ocean density. The GRACE mission has been instrumental in quantifying such mass fluctuations, yet its lifetime is limited. However, the broader importance of non-tidal ocean mass variability for geodesy and oceanography, i.e. for understanding the time varying geoid, shape of the Earth's crust, centre of figure, Earth rotation, is obvious. Similarly, deep ocean processes can only be understood properly when not only sea surface height and upper ocean steric expansion are measured but deep ocean pressure anomalies are accounted for in addition. Only the knowledge of all three terms allows estimates of deep ocean warming and helps in understanding and predicting sea level rise. In "Consistent Ocean Mass Time Series from LEO Potential Field Missions (CONTIM)" we propose to combine expertise on precise satellite orbit determination, gravity field and mass modelling, and physical oceanography to retrieve, analyse and verify consistent time series of ocean mass variations from a set of low-flying Earth orbiters including GRACE. This information is used to further our understanding of oceanic movement, ocean warming and sea level rise.
Understanding regional sea level change and its impacts on societies requires new forms of integrated research between natural and social sciences. The Priority Program (SPP-1889) "Regional Sea Level Change and Society (SeaLevel)", funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG) performs a comprehensive, interdisciplinary analysis to advance our knowledge on regional, climate-related sea level change, while taking into account the associated human-environment interactions and socio-economic developments in the coastal zone.
Seamless Sea Ice Prediction
The BMBF Young Investigator Group SSIP (2017—2022) works towards advancing sea-ice prediction capacity on timescales from hours to years and beyond. To achieve this, SSIP develops and conducts research with a seamless sea-ice prediction system based on the recently developed AWI Climate Model. The unstructured grid of the ocean/sea-ice component of this model (FESOM) allows to use high resolution in the polar regions (plus other key regions) in a global setup, enabling a seamless application of the prediction system on a wide range of timescales. The group applies state-of-the-art techniques to initialize the prediction model using remote-sensing and in-situ observations; it optimizes and further develops the sea-ice component of the prediction model; and it applies the prediction system to address research questions related to sea-ice predictability, verification, and the impact of different observations on sea-ice prediction.
TRR181 is a DFG funded project about energy transfers in atmosphere and ocean.
The energy of a closed system is steady. It is not lost but rather converted into other forms, such as when kinetic energy is transferred into thermal energy or vice versa heat results in a force.
However, this fundamental principle of natural science is often still a problem for climate research. For example, in case of the calculation of ocean currents, where small-scale vortices as well as mixing processes they induce need to be considered, without fully understanding where the energy for their creation originates from. This is similar in the atmosphere, the only difference being that air is moving instead of water. Again, local turbulences can drive larger movements or vice versa waves on a larger scale can disintegrate into small structures.
All these processes are important for the Earth’s climate and determine how temperatures will rise in the future.
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is a major international activity that has been initiated by World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) as a key component of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). YOPP takes place from mid-2017 to mid-2019. Its overarching goal is to significantly advance our environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond.
As an internationally coordinated period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities which involves various stakeholders, the Year of Polar Prediction will contribute to the knowledge base needed to managing the opportunities and risks that come with Arctic climate change.