Warming Climates across time scales - insights from the multiresolution climate model AWI-ESM3 (WaClim)
Funder: INtelligent and Substainable Processing of Innovative Rare-Earth MagnetS (INSPIRES project)
Funding identification number (FKZ): IR8701021
Cost (Kostenstelle): DM 87011015
Project duration: 01. Juli 2021 - 30. November 2025
Applicants: Dr. Christian Stepanek | Prof. Dr. Gerrit Lohmann | Dr. Tido Semmler
PhD student: Fernanda Matos
Climate models, while inherently uncertain and biased, are the only quantitative tools we have for predicting future climate conditions. Improving climate projections necessitates identifying and rectifying the weaknesses in these models, a non-trivial task due to the absence of model-independent data for future verification. In our effort to enhance the third generation of the AWI Earth System Model (AWI-ESM3), we circumvent this challenge by refining past, present, and future climate simulations with reconstructions and observations of historical climate data. This project aims to provide reference climate states for past and future warm climate zones based on the improved model. Our work not only contributes to the AWI's participation in the CMIP/PMIP flagship initiatives but also enhances the AWI-ESM3 for use in warm climate zones and identifies past climate characteristics that can serve as analogies for the future.
Example: Seasonal mean surface air temperature (SAT) for the PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene core simulation Eoi400
As a result of climate warming, we anticipate significant changes in both annual averages and seasonal temperatures. Earth's history provides us with examples of past warm climate states. The mid-Pliocene, about 3 million years ago, was the last period in Earth's history when the climate was influenced by greenhouse gas concentrations comparable to those of today. Stepanek et al. (2020) have examined many aspects of the mid-Pliocene climate using the Community Earth System Models.
Displayed here is the temperature anomaly for the four seasons: winter (a), spring (b), summer (c), and autumn (d), as a representative result. In their study, Stepanek et al. found that two-thirds of the simulated annual mean temperature anomaly of the mid-Pliocene (just over 3°C above pre-industrial levels) can be explained by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. This indicates that anthropogenic climate change will lead to significantly higher temperature changes over time than we are currently observing. Our goal is to replicate this work using the newer AWI-ESM3 model with significantly improved spatial resolution, and by considering additional relevant physical processes in the Earth system, to verify and refine the results.
More information about the project WaClim
References
Stepanek, C., Samakinwa, E., Knorr, G., and Lohmann, G.: Contribution of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–vegetation model COSMOS to the PlioMIP2, Clim. Past, 16, 2275–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, 2020.