In East Siberia, Extreme Wildfires are on the Rise

“We discovered that roughly 10,000 years ago – when the forests of East Siberia were still quite open and home to broad grasslands – there were very many wildfires in the region,” says Ramesh Glückler. “In contrast, up until the last few centuries, wildfire activity decreased as forests grew denser.” The Holocene, the current epoch in the history of our planet and which began ca. 11,000 years ago, was initially characterised by open larch and birch forests. Yet forest structures changed in the Middle Holocene; from that point on, dense larch forests dominated the vegetation.

In the past several years, there have been frequent extreme wildfires, particularly in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in northeast Russia. Here, the experts see a potential feedback effect: because of climate change, more trees are dying and forests are thinning out. In turn, the more open forest landscapes produced can lead to increased wildfire activity. As Glückler explains: “We believe the still existent, dense larch forest continues to limit the effects of climate change on wildfires.”

However, little is known about the long-term connections between changes in wildfire activity and forest structures in general. According to Glückler: “Since the local populace is already confronted with changing environmental conditions and more intense wildfire seasons, understanding the long-term correlations between vegetation and fire hazards is of tremendous importance.” The researchers now plan to simulate and assess this aspect with the aid of a fire-and-vegetation model. In addition, the new data from their study will improve East Siberia’s integration into global synthesis studies, a context in which this important habitat is often under-represented.