From 10 to 21 November, the global community will meet in Belém, Brazil, at the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP) to find ways to tackle the climate crisis and its consequences for people and the environment. It is the first COP that takes place in Amazonia, a region that plays a huge role in the climate: The rainforest stores large amounts of carbon and is a habitat for countless species. However, climate change and human influences such as deforestation are causing considerable pressure.

In this environment, it once again, becomes clear how crucial it is that the participants jointly commit to ambitious measures to curb climate change. Given the current geopolitical situation, this seems particularly difficult this year.

10 years after the member states agreed on the Paris Climate Agreement at COP21, the conference in Belém will check, whether their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are on the right track to achieve the goals agreed in Paris. At that time, it was agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C, if possible to 1.5 °C, compared to pre-industrial levels. This would require a massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. However, according to a UN report, only a third of the signatory states had submitted new NDCs by the end of October this year. The largest emitters are still in debt. The EU also only finalized its plans shortly before the start of the COP and weakened its climate targets. At the end of October, over 2,000 scientists warned the European heads of state and government in an open letter that the discussions surrounding the European climate target for 2040 are increasingly moving away from scientific findings. AWI researchers also signed the letter. At the COP30 in Belém, some of them will once again be on site to present their research on topics such as permafrost and biodiversity.

Other topics that could play an important role at the COP30 are fair international climate financing, adaptation to climate change, the phase-out of fossil fuels, climate justice and the twin crisis between the loss of biodiversity and global warming.
 

The 1,5°C target – an obituary? 

by Helge Goessling

AWI researcher Dr Helge Goessling sheds light from the perspective of a climate physicist on whether we can still keep to the 1.5°C target, or whether we have already exceeded it. You can find his full assessment here.

„The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5°C in the next few years,“ UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently admitted ahead of the COP30 UN-Climate Change Conference. The target set ten years ago in the Paris Climate Agreement was already very ambitious at that time and has become increasingly implausible over the years due to inadequate societal-political development and rapid warming. However, the 1.5°C limit has not yet actually been exceeded. And doesn't the mark of “well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C” allow the 1.5°C limit to be exceeded at least temporarily? So, is it too early for an obituary?
 

Global carbon budget – How long do we have left?

The international research project  „Global Carbon Project“ will present its new report in Belém. And it shows that fossil CO2 emissions will reach a record high in 2025: At 38.1 billion tons, emissions will be 1.1 per cent higher than in 2024. If emissions remain at this level, we will probably have used up the carbon budget we have left to limit global warming to 1.5 °C in four years.

AWI climate scientist Prof Judith Hauck coordinated the assessment of the ocean sink for the report. “The oceans have absorbed 29 per cent of total CO2 emissions over the past ten years. This makes them the largest natural sink for man-made CO₂ emissions.” Emissions from land use are also showing a slight downward trend. Nevertheless, the researchers in the Global Carbon Project see that climate change is having an increasingly significant impact on natural sinks and is weakening the important function of oceans and vegetation on land to store CO₂. “The sinks are tremendously important for us as they give us a 50 per cent discount on climate change,” explains Judith Hauck. “The best way to protect them is to bring CO₂ emissions to zero and mitigate climate change as much as possible.”

The AWI researcher sees progress in the right direction, for example with the strong growth of renewable energies and emissions falling in many countries. However, this is still not enough to put the world on the necessary course towards zero emissions. She therefore hopes that the 10th anniversary of the Paris Climate Agreement will motivate countries at the COP to intensify their efforts to limit global warming to well below 2 °C, preferably 1.5 °C. “It is difficult to imagine that we can still achieve the 1.5°C target – mainly because of political and social processes, not because of technical limitations. But even if we can't keep to 1.5 °C, we will still fight for 1.6 and then 1.7 °C. Every tenth counts.”

Twin crisis: Climate change and loss of biodiversity

Anthropogenic climate change and the loss of biodiversity are often seen as two separate crises. However, neither can be successfully overcome if they are not solved together. “Both catastrophes – the climate and the biodiversity crisis – are mutually dependent and reinforcing each other and should therefore not be viewed detached from each other,” says AWI physiologist Prof Hans-Otto Pörtner, who will accompany the German delegation to Belém. For example, global warming is profoundly changing the habitats and conditions of plants and animals, influencing their interactions with each other and opening the door to new threats such as environmental pollution or species extinction. Human activities have changed around 75 per cent of the Earth's land surface and 66 per cent of its oceans - so much so that more species are now threatened with extinction than ever before in human history.

On the other hand, the loss of animal and plant species is weakening entire ecosystems and their functions. Forests, oceans and moors are enormous carbon sinks that could lose this important ability. This further exacerbates global warming and thus the climate crisis. COP30 in the Amazon region is the appropriate venue to put this twin crisis on a political stage and to embed the protection of biodiversity as an integral part of nationally determined contributions. “The high level of biodiversity in the Amazon region and the threat posed to this unique ecosystem by climate change and the overexploitation of nature should be the motivation to finally achieve the pace of climate protection required to implement the Paris Agreement,” says Hans-Otto Pörtner.

For ambitious and, above all, effective protective measures, politicians should be guided by facts and scientific findings. At the end of October, more than 2,000 scientists warned in an open letter to the European heads of state and government that discussions about the European climate target for 2040 are increasingly moving away from scientific findings. “As researchers, we need to clearly show the right path for policymakers to take. Building a sustainable society in which everyone can make a living and lead a good life is ultimately the goal that should determine day-to-day policy,” says Hans-Otto Pörtner.

This is also where the European collaborative project “BioAgora” draws on. “We want to connect scientists, policy actors, and other knowledge holders through a structured dialogue to bring together research results on biodiversity and the needs of decision-making“, says Dr. Josie Antonucci di Carvalho form the Helmholtz Institute for Functional Marine Biodiversity (HIFMB). „We are planning on developing a Science Service for Biodiversity, which will serve as the scientific pillar of the EU’s Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity and help ensure that biodiversity and natural capital like forests and oceans are integrated into public decisions at all levels.”

The ecologist contributes to BioAgora’s Marine Knowledge Exchange Network (KEN-Marine), which focuses on the policy needs of European marine biodiversity. The network aims to improve access to marine evidence for decision-making. It also supports the implementation of key EU marine targets, including the commitment to legally protect at least 30 per cent of EU seas and reduce the negative impacts of fisheries on sensitive habitats and species. At COP30, Josie Antonucci di Carvalho will present her research at the German Pavilion of the Federal Government. “By contributing to the discussions and showcasing BioAgora’s work through KEN-Marine, I hope to help strengthen the visibility of the ocean in the political arena and support a more integrated approach in which climate, biodiversity, and the ocean are understood as inseparable.”
 

Permafrost

Similar to the Amazon region, where this year's COP is taking place, the cryosphere is also on the verge of crossing tipping points. Climate change is affecting the frozen water masses of our planet, causing glaciers, ice sheets, sea ice and permafrost to disappear. In Belém, the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) will be presenting the latest scientific findings in the Cryosphere Pavilion and highlighting the need for action that result from them. These are also summarized in the recently published 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report: A warming of just 1 °C could jeopardize the stability of the ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic, and that of the glaciers even at lower temperatures. However, ambitious climate protection measures could reduce warming to below 1.5 °C by 2100 and to below 1 °C in the next century. These would have to be implemented immediately, though.

AWI researchers Prof Hugues Lantuit and Fabian Seemann will be on site. Together with Christina Schädel (Woodwell Climate Research Center) and Gustaf Hugelius (Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University), they will inform political decision-makers about the current state of science on climate-relevant permafrost issues, such as the predicted emissions from thawing permafrost. “Around 15 per cent of the land area in the northern hemisphere is permanently frozen. Around 1024 gigatonnes of carbon lie dormant here, which is roughly double the amount of carbon in the atmosphere,” says Hugues Lantuit. Climate change is causing the soil to thaw, increasing the risk of this carbon being released into the atmosphere as additional greenhouse gases and thus amplifying global warming.

“The dangerous thing is that there is no global tipping point at which the thawing of permafrost is irreversible. There are many local and regional tipping elements that 'ignite' at different times, causing the ground to thaw in step with global warming.” It is therefore even more urgent to act quickly in the present in order to preserve as much permafrost as possible. “In view of the above-average warming of the Arctic, we urgently need ambitious resolutions at COP30,” says Hugues Lantuit. “In Belém, the next NDCs will be negotiated for the years 2031 to 2035, a period in which climate change impacts are expected to be more pronounced than ever before. Now is therefore the time to take and implement ambitious decisions.”  

In response to the alarming impacts of climate change on the cryosphere, the UN General Assembly has proclaimed the Decade of Action for Cryosphere Science (2025 - 2034). The aim is to promote international scientific cooperation and support sustainable development efforts.

Emissions Gap Report und Production Gap Report – phasing out fossil fuels

2.3 to 2.5 °C of warming by the end of the century - this is where we are heading if every country were to consistently implement its climate protection plans. This is the assessment made by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in its latest Emissions Gap Report. This is a slight improvement of 0.3 °C compared to the last report, which is mainly due to the fact that more low-carbon technologies are available and renewable energies, especially solar energy, are on the rise. However, this is no reason to rest, as the report states: The UNEP expects that we will exceed the 1.5 °C mark within the next decade because it is hardly possible for countries to reduce their emissions sufficiently and in good time.

The Stockholm Environment Institute comes to a similar conclusion in its Production Gap Report. According to this report, the 20 largest producers of fossil fuels are planning to produce 120 per cent more fossil fuels than would be compatible with the 1.5 °C mark. Although more electricity is being generated from renewables than ever before, the AI boom and growing economies such as China and India are demanding much more energy than can be covered by wind and solar power.
 

"Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3 Billion" – What does adaptation to climate change cost?

An important result achieved by the global community at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, last year was the Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3 trillion. This financial roadmap is intended to provide financial support to countries categorized as developing countries for climate protection and adaptation measures, for example against droughts, storms or floods. At least 1.3 trillion US dollars are to be made available for this every year until 2035. In Belém, the structural framework set out in the roadmap is now to be finalized, with plans that include public and private donors, time horizons, as well as mechanisms for legal bindingness and monitoring. This should strengthen and supplement existing financial mechanisms, such as the “Loss & Damage Fund”. This supports developing countries in compensating for losses and damage caused by climate change, as they are often unable to provide rapid, equitable support without these funds.

The “Adaptation Gap Report” by the UN Environment Programme UNEP underlines the need for binding, fair funding: according to the report, many countries already have National Adaptation Plans to counteract and adapt to climate change, but lack the money to implement them. According to the report, developing countries would need around 365 billion dollars annually by 2035. This is 12 to 14 times as much as the previously pledged support of at least 30 billion dollars.

COP30 will therefore be about how the countries decide on concrete measures and financing plans to close this gap between the actual need and the money pledged so far.
 

National climate protection contributions

The Paris Climate Agreement includes that the signatory states will submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025 that clearly show what measures a country intends to take to reduce greenhouse gases by 2035. However, according to a UN report, only a third had submitted new NDCs by the end of October – and the measures stated here are nowhere near enough to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: According to the plans, greenhouse gas emissions would fall by an average of 17 per cent compared to the pre-corona period (2019), but it would have to be 60 per cent. In addition, major emitters have not yet submitted their NDCs. The EU was also only able to agree on its NDCs in tough negotiations shortly before the COP. The countries want to reduce their emissions by 90 per cent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. However, they can save up to five percentage points of this mark through climate certificates by financially supporting climate protection projects outside the EU – originally, this amount was planned to be at three percent. However, the effectiveness of these measures is controversial.

In its report, the UN states that although the measures are not yet sufficient, the submitted NDCs also show progress. For example, around 90 per cent of countries have extended the measures to reduce emissions to all divisions of the economy in their new plans, so that they also apply to sectors such as energy, industry, transport and agriculture. In addition, most NDCs increasingly include measures for adaptation and their financing, as well as strategies to become more resilient to the consequences of climate change. Almost all countries have also included social components in their national plans: For example, civil society, business and local governments are to play an active part in planning and implementing measures. Gender aspects and the participation of indigenous peoples and local communities are also increasingly being taken into account.
 

Climate justice & social aspects

One area of tension in which the COP has been operating from the outset is that climate change does affect all countries in the world, but not all to the same extent. Countries in the Global South contribute significantly less to climate change with their emissions than the industrialized nations in the northern hemisphere, yet experience the consequences much stronger. Many lack the money to protect themselves from heatwaves, droughts, floods or storms. To compensate for losses and damage caused by climate change, the international community set up the “Loss & Damage Fund” at COP28 in Dubai. However, its full scope has not yet been finalized: The countries' contributions are voluntary and how funds are to be mobilized and used is also still open. These issues could be addressed at COP30.

In July, the International Court of Justice in The Hague (ICJ) published an assessment on dealing with climate change that recognizes a clean, healthy and sustainable environment as a human right. The ICJ emphasizes that the negative effects of climate change also affect other human rights, particularly in relation to life and health. The international community therefore has an obligation under international law to curb the progression of climate change.
 

Forests

The COP30 in Belém is the first in the Amazon region. The rainforest here is the green lung of our planet, as it stores an estimated 150 to 200 billion tons of carbon and produces enormous amounts of oxygen through photosynthesis. However, the consequences of climate change and the loss of biodiversity are putting enormous pressure on the region, as are human activities, with the result that the ecosystem is in danger of collapsing. With the “Tropical Forest Forever Fund” (TFFF), which Brazil will present at the COP30, the host country wants to create financial incentives for countries that preserve their rainforests. 20 per cent of the fund is intended to support indigenous peoples and traditional communities. The TFFF is still in its initial phase and some details have yet to be finalized.

Prof Dr Maarten Boersma, Interim Director of the AWI

“In the last ten years, the ice masses in Antarctica have also reduced very sharply, although they were previously relatively stable. The glaciers in the north of Greenland are also melting and we are seeing massive ice losses. That's why we, as polar researchers, need to send a strong signal that something has to happen.”

Prof Judith Hauck, Group Leader Biogeochemical Modelling of the Oceans at AWI

“It's hard to imagine that we can still reach the 1.5 °C target – mainly because of political and social processes, not because of technical limitations. But even if we can't keep to 1.5 °C, we'll still be fighting for 1.6 and then 1.7 °C. Every tenth of a degree counts!”

Prof Hugues Lantuit, Head of the Permafrost Coasts Working Group at AWI

“In view of the above-average warming of the Arctic, we urgently need ambitious resolutions at COP30. In Belém, the next NDCs will be negotiated for the years 2031 to 2035, a period in which climate change impacts are expected to be more pronounced than ever before. Now is therefore the time to take and implement ambitious decisions.”

Dr Helge Goessling, climate physicist at the AWI

„The target set ten years ago in the Paris Climate Agreement was already very ambitious at that time and has become increasingly implausible over the years due to inadequate societal-political development and rapid warming. However, the 1.5°C limit has not yet actually been exceeded. So, in purely physical terms, the 1.5°C target has not yet been broken. At the same time, scenarios that could keep the temperature “well below 2°C” are increasingly implausible. Strictly speaking, it is therefore still too early for an obituary for the 1.5°C target. However, it is almost certainly not a waste of time to write it and have it ready in the drawer.”

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