In addition, the two AWI researchers’ work is unique in that they combined laboratory findings with established climate models. The models predict the extent to which temperatures in various waters will be affected by climate change, and how much they will acidify. In turn, thanks to their experiments the two researchers can now precisely determine in which areas the Atlantic cod and polar cod will no longer be able to spawn in the future. It also becomes clear that we could see shifts in fish populations, because the adults will have to search for new spawning areas where their eggs or embryos can still find viable conditions for normal development. In this regard, Dahlke and Storch have chiefly considered three climate scenarios: the business-as-usual scenario, in which there is no meaningful reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by the end of the 21st century; a climate scenario with moderate warming, and a scenario in which the IPCC’s 1.5-degree goal – according to which the Earth’s temperature can’t be allowed to increase by more than 1.5 degrees in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change – is achieved. Working together with climate modeller Martin Butzin from the AWI, they arrived at some interesting conclusions. According to Flemming Dahlke, “They show that, for the business-as-usual scenario, conditions for the young Atlantic cod will especially deteriorate in the North Atlantic near the end of this century. In the regions around Iceland and Norway, up to 60 percent fewer cod larvae will hatch from their eggs.” Generally speaking, the Atlantic cod populations in the Northeast Atlantic will likely shift into the Arctic, where the spawning grounds still offer adequate conditions. This could especially pose problems for the fishing industry, since the coasts of Iceland and Norway are currently home to the world’s largest populations of Atlantic cod: Every year, around 800,000 tonnes of cod worth 2 billion euros are harvested here. If these populations dwindle, as the AWI experts’ findings indicate, the losses could be enormous.