Should changes in the polar regions be of interest to us?

The Arctic is far away, the Antarctic even further. Both are extremely inhospitable places: hardly a tree or a shrub and extreme temperatures, like in a freezer. However, for the scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research there are a lot of good reasons to carefully follow what happens at the poles - says Prof. Karin Lochte, Director of AWI.

What role do the polar regions play in the Earth's climate?

The polar regions are important regulators and drivers of the World's climate. The large depressions, which affect the global weather patterns, originate there. Figuratively speaking, the polar regions are the weather kitchens of the Earth's climate. Much of the weather that affects us in Europe comes from the Arctic. Our models show that in the future, polar regions will warm up much faster than the rest of the world. They are, literally, "hot spots" of future climate evolution.

Climate change is already in full swing. Since the beginning of industrialization, we have recorded a temperature increase of 0,6 to 0,7 degrees. How does this manifest itself in the polar regions?

We are seeing changes in several regions. On the Antarctic Peninsula glaciers are melting rapidly – one only has to think of the spectacular pictures of the Larsen Ice Sheet, from which large parts broke off and plunged into the sea a few years ago. Since other ice shelves are also unstable, we expect that these too will break up in the foreseeable future. In the Arctic, two things are causing us concern. Firstly, the sea ice is retreating dramatically. Its area is shrinking, it is getting thinner and we don’t know to what extent this will continue in the future. On the other hand, glaciers on Greenland are flowing much faster than before, and we have to see to what extent these melting rates will increase, or whether there may be a reversal.

It is clear that temperatures will continue to rise. A maximum of two degrees of global warming is a political goal, but there is a possibility that by the end of the century it could be as many as four degrees. What would happen in the polar regions under the worst-case scenario?

The two degrees are only a global average. In the Arctic, the warming may well turn out twice as high. This in turn could lead to higher melting rates of the Greenland ice sheet, which would then have an impact on sea level - with global consequences. And if the sea ice continues to decline as at present, the ecosystem will change. For example, the fishing vessels are already moving north, and the productivity and the habitats of the Arctic Ocean are changing immensely. But there will also be opportunities. There is already discussion on whether the Northeast and the Northwest Passages can in future be used for shipping and whether the geological resources underneath the Arctic seafloor, such as oil, gas and metals, could be exploited.

All these predictions are indeed fraught with uncertainties. What exactly are the open questions for research at present?

One of the big questions is: What will happen to the permafrost regions on land and under the oceans? If the permafrost thaws, large amounts of CO2 and perhaps also methane are expected to be released. What impact this will have on the atmosphere and the climate is not yet exactly known. Another big issue is: How will the ecosystems change? We still do not know enough about how wildlife will react to climatic changes, for example when the sea ice continues to retreat. Everybody is concerned about the polar bears, but there are many other animals and plants that would be affected.

What can an institution such as the Alfred Wegener Institute contribute towards the clarification of these open questions?

We have many technical means to work within these areas - for example, our research icebreaker Polarstern and our research aircraft. We are also developing observation systems that can take measurements all year-round in the polar regions. The data are analyzed and then used to create models for forecasting, which will tell us how these regions are likely to develop in the future. However, we can only make such predictions with limited probabilities.

Polar and climate research are exceedingly global issues. Is science today well linked internationally or is there a need to become even more international?

We already are very international. Many research topics are studied together with colleagues from Europe and other countries. But I think we need to strengthen this cooperation - after all, it is very difficult to work in the polar regions. Just to access the Arctic and Antarctic is in itself a logistical challenge. Here, we could certainly assist each other even more, but we are already well on our way. Especially regarding the use of our research vessels, where we are in very close contact. Also today's aircraft-based campaigns are usually carried out together with our international partners.

Nevertheless, in the end the Arctic and Antarctica are quite far away from Germany. Why should the Federal Republic remain engaged in polar research?

Firstly, we should keep in mind that what is brewing in the Arctic weather kitchen, has a very strong influence on our climate in Europe. On the other hand, there are also political considerations concerning the future exploitation of Arctic resources, which of course raises many questions regarding a careful and sustainable use. Our outstanding and internationally recognised capacity and expertise in polar research make us an interesting partner for the Arctic coastal states. As regards Antarctica, only those countries which carry out scientific research there, are accepted as signatory states to the Antarctic Treaty. We have therefore not only a scientific, but also political commitment to do research in Antarctica.