On the art of climate modelling - How well do we know the future?
XXV Heidelberg Physics Graduate Days, 4-8 October 2010 (14:00-17:00)
Summary:
During the last few decades, the recognition that human activities are most likely modifying the current Earth”s climate has lead to both an increased interest and a strong advancement in the research field of climate modelling. Climate models are mathematical representations of the different components of the Earth's climate system (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, ice masses) as well as of the manifold interactions between them. The increasing importance of climate models is underlined by the fact that such models are nowadays not used for fundamental research, only, but also to predict future climate and guide policymakers.
This lecture will give an introduction to the theory and intent of climate modelling. Topics of the course will include the physical principles of climate modelling, approaches of spatial and temporal discretization applied within climate models, representation of sub-scale processes, as well as the recent development shift from physical-based climate models to more integrative Earth System Models. The presentation of the general concepts of climate modelling will be accompanied by an overview and discussion of recent simulation results on past, present and potential future climate change, as published by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).